AniBlurbs (Column)

“…there is a group of executives inside the company that believe “Pay With Facebook” could end up a bigger revenue source than Facebook’s advertising revenues. We’ve estimated Facebook’s advertising revenues will reach $475 million in 2009.

To get an idea what kind of challenges Facebook will have to overcome to get there, consider that during the second quarter, eBay subsidiary PayPal’s revenues were $669 million, up 11% y/y.

It got there with:

• 75 million active registered accounts
• A total payment volume of $16 billion in the quarter
• With accounts containing approximately $3 billion in stored value that is spent every 2 weeks
• Supporting 19 currencies
• With a .30% fraud rate

Facebook can’t approach any of those numbers yet, but it does possess one distinct advantage — nearly 300 million monthly active users.

What’s more, the rousing success that is Facebook Connect — the service that allows users to log in to participating third-party sites using their Facebook IDs with one click — hints that Facebook users might appreciate a similar “one-click” simplicity when paying for merchandise on the Internet.”

Be sure to check the whole article at BusinessInsider.com

Privacy concerns aside, one can imagine that Facebook’s One-Click payment solution, along with the social sharing of articles and posts through Facebook Connect, could be the panacea for newspaper publishers looking for ways of monetizing content beyond the stale and flailing “generate-pageviews-sell-banners” business model.

How so?

Well, besides the general mentality that digital content should be “free”, one of the major issues in monetizing content on the web by surrounding it with a “Pay-First wall”, is the fact that visitors don’t know in advance what (quality) they’ll exactly be paying for; consumers fear buying a shrink-wrapped magazine purely based on its cover, only to be disappointed afterwards.

Whereas on iTunes or with Steam you usually know that what your getting is guaranteed to have a substantial replay-factor or, in the case of iTunes, since the price is relatively low, you can afford the risk of a dud every now and then.

This, arguably, is not the case with ubiquitous news, or in-depth articles.

Utilizing Facebook’s micro-payment solution combined with Facebook Connect however, publishers will have the opportunity of using a “hassle-less” One-Click online payment solution, powered by trusted(?) recommendations of friends: “Hey Todd, here’s an article I just read about Obama’s healthcare reform,  touching it from a viewpoint I believe you’d find interesting, check it out. Cheers, Brian.” Ching!

Farfetched? For a showcase of the true power of social sharing: Think the Bit.Ly-shortened links being universally shared on twitter, spreading idea’s, content (and malware) virally. Only this time it’s done by folks with verified Facebook ID’s so you know they’re actually real and can be trusted.

Off course, should the scenario sketched above come to fruition, Facebook will have to get a piece of the revenue pie too, but the publishing moguls ‘d be wise to carefully re-consider jumping into their fabled “No-Can-Do” reflexes, since it’s becoming increasingly clear that the other option for them and their companies’ stakeholders is not having a pie to share at all…

(PS please note that I deliberately left all privacy concerns regarding Facebook out of this exercise, since I believe that we should topple the online publishing troubles in a concentric way; shilling away to the core, tackling the multifaceted problem layer by layer, instead of pre-maturely obstruficating any possible solution by thinking in limitations only.

This, however, does not imply that I don’t see the possible dangers of Facebook not only owning your social graph and personal data, but also knowing when you bought what (and whom approved said purchase!) and where you’re likely to go to form a political opinion or otherwise.

Though I feel and see that having this kind of aggregated combined profile data of possibly more than 300 million people in the hands of one party could pose a real threat when falling into the wrong hands, I urge you to go and take a look over at Alexander van Elsas’s blog, as he has already indentified and dissected this problem with great abandon.)

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Deze bedrijven gebruiken mogelijk informatie (niet jouw naam, adres, e-mailadres of telefoonnummer) over jouw bezoek aan deze of aan andere websites om advertenties weer te geven over goederen en services waarin je wellicht geïnteresseerd bent. Als je hierover meer informatie wenst of als je wilt voorkomen dat deze bedrijven deze informatie gebruiken, klik je op deze link.

Weave Identity is a very interesting component from Mozilla Labs (of Firefox fame) and a possible disrupting one for the Facebook Connect’s, OpenID’s and OAuth’s of this world:

“Offering a single sign-in solution for the web is currently a hot topic. Google, Yahoo, Facebook, MySpace and countless other sites are all offering to host your identity for you. Many of these key players on the social web are also offering tools to allow third-party sites to let you log in using the identity you have hosted with whoever your provider is – Google through FriendConnect, Facebook through Facebook Connect and Twitter through its recently debuted OAuth-based system. But in the end, who knows how long any of those sites will last? It seems to make more sense to hand these duties off to something more permanent than the hot site of the moment.

That’s where Mozilla’s latest implementation of Weave starts to make sense. You can store your credentials anywhere, including on Mozilla’s servers or your own web server.”

Source: WIRED’s Webmonkey

If the Weave add-on is implemented as a standard feature in the next version of the 2^nd largest browser in the world, it stands a reasonable chance of becoming THE default Online Identity Manager/Social Media Passport; allowing you to safely and seamlessly log in to your favourite Social Networks, blogs and communities, across multiple platforms (Windows, Mac OS) and various devices (think Mobile, Netbooks, Thin Clients).

All the while giving you complete and FULL control over your online identity (you can even store your Weave login credentials on your own server!), which positions it directly opposite of the Walled Garden approach that Facebook is fast becoming notorious for.

The ease of use, combined with the fact that your average internet user hasn’t even heard of Google-, Facebook- and Twitter’s Online Identity Management solutions make Firefox Weave a serious threat to the aforementioned parties. After all: Wouldn’t it seem more logical and feel safer for her to let the browser take care of her online identity?

“Something that often goes unsaid in the discussion about online identity is that while most websites right now require usernames and passwords, many people actually use the password manager feature in the browser-effectively turning their browser into a limited identity manager.”

Source: Mozilla Labs

By offering this One-Log-In-To-Rule-Them-All^TM feature as a standard option in the browser, much like Yahoo’s- or Google’s toolbar, a lot of the hassle and security issues associated with web based ID alternatives are removed from the user’s table:

“User experience in general suffers as protocols for federation (e.g. OpenID) involve complex redirects which jump the user from page to page and leave them open to phishing attacks…”

Source: Mozilla Labs

And there’s another major USP that promises a bright future for the Weave project: Firefox is an Open Source initiative, and even though OpenSocial, OpenID & OAuth are Open Source projects as well, Facebook, Twitter, MySpace, Google and Microsoft are commercial parties with a deep interest into becoming your single sign-in partner, so they can monitor the sites you visit and the time frame in which you did: pure data mining for marketing purposes. In a time where privacy issues are within everyone’s crosshairs, this could become Mozilla’s trump card in the battle for your Online Identity.

Of course, there’s nothing stopping Google (note that they have 300 Million accounts!) from implementing such a feature in Chrome -it’s very own browser- using Friend Connect, or Microsoft from doing the same with their Live toolbar/Live Passport and Internet Explorer. The point is that the former hasn’t yet managed to get any serious foot in the browser market. And though the latter is the current incumbent in browser market share (for now), it has failed for almost 10 years to make it’s .NET Passport/Live ID efforts a true cross-web success, even as younger initiatives from the likes of Facebook and twitter have taken off in the past year or so.

All in all, it’ll be very interesting to see how the developments around Identity Hosting continue to evolve…

[Update: Netlog now accepts Google FriendConnect, more on TechCrunch.]

The slide -embedded below- is a comprehensive-yet-easy-digestible presentation, sensibly touching upon The Cloud, the hype and misconceptions surrounding it, and the biggest issue the Tech industry will face in 2009: Privacy.

“The Biggest Issue the Tech Industry will face in Two-Oh-Nine is Privacy.”

Nat Torkington from O’Reilly Radar has rounded up a whopping 191 slides on the Future of the Cloud and how this ties together with our online privacy; food for thought as we approach enter The Year of Change…

[Note: Expand the presentation to full-screen so you can read the accompanying notes]

As Social Media reached its Tipping Point in 2008 (judging by the Web 2.0 supercharged, grass-roots powered, landslide victory of Obama in the US Presidential Elections, and the explosive growth of Facebook) claiming that Twitter and RSS feeds will break into the Non-Digerati mainstream in 2009 doesn’t seem to be a farfetched forecast for the New Year -at first sight.

Some other predictions: 2009 will be remembered as The Year Of Privacy, Authenticity, Relevancy (in Marketing), Personal Branding & Change Management. Invoking Trust and investing in Innovation will also be two key cornerstones and challenges on which businesses will have to focus in the coming twelve months. WIRED has an interesting post, zooming in on Six Tech Trends.

Yet, as Seth Godin rightfully points out in one of many brilliant posts this month, backed by the outbreak of the Subprime- & Credit Crunch and the Financial Crisis between August 2007 & September 2008 and the ensuing events; long-term predictions tend to fall flat on their face. Often. And in a very ugly matter actually.

[If you've always wondered how any non-gamer/marketer could have fallen eyes wide shut in the Farce that Second Life inevitably turned out to be (even though it was fairly obvious to gamers that it had "FAIL" written all over its face), see the video directly below.
It perfectly communicates what definitely won't be happening in 2009 or what has obviously already come to pass in the past years, all presented by a "Trend Watcher" preaching otherwise.]

Trends FADS In 2009

Now if there’s one thing -the outcome of- the Obama ‘08 Campaign strategy should have proven to Old School Marketers and Agencies, it’s that releasing control over your brand is actually a good thing and even if this casus doesn’t convince them, the word on the streets is that The Crowds seized this “control” ages ago.

Another fact that should have become crystal clear to even the most obstinate of naysayers, is that in 2009, traditional advertising agencies -and newspapers- will have to either sink or swim in order to survive the Interactive Marketing Tidal Wave: The days of the Mass-Media-Interruption-Marketing-Only approach for immeasurable branding purposes are over, as are the days of unaccountability and vaunted effectiveness of artistic-award-winning-yet-incomprehensible advertisements.

In its place we’ll welcome Neo Marketing [jpeg, 69.75 KB (71428 bytes)]

Neo Marketing = Permission Based Marketing, meaning that we’ll only approach people, humans, individuals -and not “target audiences”- with relevant conversations if and when they see fit; taking in their feedback directly, treating it with respect and giving it some order of priority, all the while keeping a sharp eye on Conversion Rates or Task Completion Rates by Primary Purpose, when speaking of the web specifically. Very transparent, results-driven and opt-in actually ;)

Utilizing Neo Marketing is the most effective, consumer-centric way of building and retaining your business/brand in this day and age. A sound investment by any measure.

“Sending one-size-fits-all messages using mass media, as 20^th century marketing bibles and preachers would encourage and even declare as The Truth, has now definitely and officially become an unaffordable waste of precious resources, time, effort and money. Time to move on.”

Note: Branding won’t become obsolete any time soon, it’ll actually become a much stronger focus in your communication plan with one key-value to communicate: Trust.

So, the corporation has taken a step down from its pedestal, in order for the consumer to be seated on her rightful throne: Thus the internal process (the rules behind which mediocre employees tend to try to hide behind when running from responsibility) or technical system setbacks -“IT department doesn’t allow me to help you out with this problem, even though you’re not the first client facing it and it’s pretty obvious that we’re the cause”- shall no longer be the driving- or leading force behind the way we operate our company or engage with our customers.

Instead servicing the end-consu -serving people shall become the core mindset around which the constellation of your organization shall revolve, as it always should have been the main focus of your Service Strategy.

Some more knowledgeable professionals say some of the developments sketched above will be powered and spurred on by the rise of Enterprise 2.0 (Yup, I’m aware of the “Yet Another Two-Point-Oh Suffix”), and the global economic downturn shall see to it that such (r)evolutionary innovations will come to fruition in the coming year, requiring some serious change-management skills (but also a change of culture and heart for our friends from the “Behind-The-Company-Firewall-Within-The-Current-Software-Platform” IT department, putting the employees needs first in its stead).

[Side note to all skeptics- ("But you lack data backing this thesis") and pessimistic- or conservative detractors out there questioning the coming fall of the current Corporate/Advertising Status Quo:

Please do bear in mind that the Financial Armageddon of 2008 was impossible to foresee by even the savviest and clued up of Economical Analysts anywhere in the world.
Also try to remember that the concepts of Democracy, Freedom and Individualism as we know them today, didn't exist once/not too long ago either, yet they've become more widespread than any medieval Feudalist could have ever feared, the 44^th President of The Free World being the crown jewel supporting this thesis reality. And so on, and so on...]

Furthermore, results-driven Contextual Marketing (powered by the Semantic Web) and data backed analyses shall give us unprecedented REAL and actionable insights into customer behavior (only with their consent!) & their TRUE wants, allowing for even better segmentation and targeting.
Social Networks will further position and consolidate themselves as the new market place where we can meet up, connect with, and empower our customers and prospects, hopefully turning them into brand ambassadors. But only when THEY see fit; it’s their territory after all, see.

This year, the challenge for your organization lies in trying to be available for your consumers and prospects whenever and wherever they feel like reaching out to you, or:

“In 2009 Brands need to become truly ubiquitous in their interactions with consumers”

Brands need to become truly ubiquitous: If prospects or clients wish to ask you a customer support question via Twitter or show their brand loyalty by joining your Facebook Group; then please, by all means, let them have it :)
And if there’s a heated debate on a forum about your product, service or your brand in general; don’t hesitate to join in (Think Vodafone’s WebCare Team). Social Media Tracking tools like Trackur can help you, giving you a dashboard on what the latest talk in e-town is concerning your brand.

To be able to do so, you’ll have to learn to actively participate and interact in those spaces first.

[UPDATE: The Air Force has updated their Social Media Diagram]

Just as “doing a Brand Activation” through TV and Radio in conjunction with print has become the holy trinity for Fortune 500 advertisers in the second half of the 20^th century, the post-modern marketer should let go of The Fear of losing control or actually becoming -God forbid- Accountable and add the online platform and all of its interactive channels in the mix as well.

Conclusion: The internet shouldn’t be treated as just another pillar in the marketing mix; it’s a whole New World of communication opportunities next to the Offline world.

The Break Up

We must try harder to convince our peers, decision makers and conservative marketers that the only other option is to face losing out to the competition; remember this crisis is a catalyst for a long overdue change in not only marketing but business acumen as well.

All in all it won’t be an easy ride though: In the end, if your product or service doesn’t manage to live up to your story, then your organization and all of its stakeholders -CEO, shareholders and employees alike- will have to deal with the harsh consequences, now more than ever.

In the coming months, (enterprise sized) brands will have to show their human face to invoke trust and through this process the Personal Brand will have its mainstream breakthrough.

Employers will have to find a way to somehow incorporate this into their Marketing Strategy fast, as their Corporate Brand, as well as their Employer Brand, will benefit from this -if handled in an authentic way: Forrester Sr. Analyst Jeremiah Owyang has a post touching on Personal Branding vs. Corporate Policies, as always carefully and thoroughly approaching it from different perspectives.

And all the above somehow, mostly ties in to that omnipresent “Privacy Issue” that we’ve got to take into account as well, bringing us full-circle to this excellent presentation by Nathan.

Happy New Year  :)

[Update 13-01-09: link to NYTimes.com & US Air Force Blog Diagram v2]

Nu ik toch al aan het doorlinken ben naar Marketing Facts; er is daar nu een interessante discussie gaande naar aanleiding van een door Huub van Swieten geplaatste column: Waarom zo bang voor je digitale footprint?

Waar ik mij persoonlijk erg in kon vinden is dat Huub eenzelfde strategie als mijzelf hanteert t.o.v. Google/je digitale voetafdruk: Sinds ik tijdens mijn studie in 2005 begonnen ben met mijn online speeltuin, het rm2.nl netwerk, heb ik mij bewust aangemeld bij o.a. diverse dance gerelateerde fora, social networks -en communities. Uit oprechte interesse (ook vanuit mijn studie), maar mede met als doel om beter gevonden te kunnen worden door zoekmachines en dus ook door real people, vooral ook in verband met mijn muziek gerelateerde activiteiten. Daarnaast heb ik mij destijds grondig verdiept in SEO en mijn site mede daardoor diverse keren omgegooid.

Toegegeven; mijn websites zijn vandaag de dag door alle overige activiteiten een beetje in een slop geraakt (al helemaal vergeleken met de door mij gewenste benchmark, maar goed in het huis van de loodgieter lekt het, etc.). Echter in Google ben ik -zelfs internationaal en ondanks de vele miljoenen Anibal’s in de Latijns-Amerikaanse contreien- perfect vindbaar en is er geen twijfel over mogelijk dat men met “de enige echte Anibal uit Amsterdam” te maken heeft ;)

Nu, de consequenties van mijn online handelen zijn, naar mijn mening, merendeels positief uitgevallen -mag ik verwachten en hopen dat dit in de toekomst ook zo blijft?- echter, ik behoor tot de zogenoemde selecte groep digerati; Ik zat op MySpace lang voordat Hyves critical mass had weten te bereiken, had toegang tot de webmastertools van Google om mijn resultaten te optimaliseren en was dus al met voorbedachte rade actief bezig een digitaal spoor online achter te laten, lang voordat privacy en de cache van Google op het toneel van het publieke debat (in Nederland) verschenen… Kortom; ik weet aardig hoe de privacy vork in de online steel zit, maar wat als je dat niet weet?

Als je niets te verbergen hebt, is er niet veel aan de hand zou je zeggen en dat is deels ook zo, maar zou ik net zo tevreden zijn als de resultaten hetzelfde zouden zijn geweest zónder dat ik wist wat de gevolgen van mijn online acties zouden zijn? Diverse van mijn ex-collega’s hebben rond de tijd dat dit een issue werd, ik meen naar aanleiding van het ontslag van een hulpverlener n.a.v. een negatieve, laagdunkende krabbel over een haar patiënten op Hyves, angstvallig hun profiel op privé gezet. En steeds meer nieuwe oude contacten die ik op Hyves tegenkom followed suit. Hun goede recht, daar niet van. Echter, er rijzen hier meerdere, diepere vraagstukken:

Wie bezit daadwerkelijk die data: Jij als gebruiker of Hyves/MySpace als facaliterende partij? En dan bedoel ik niet volgens HUN algemene voorwaarden, maar gewoon volgens de wet. En zou een site je moeten betalen voor alle data die je verstrekt als gebruiker, immers zij gebruiken die gratis verkregen info om targetting mogelijk te maken met advertenties? Zonder jouw input geen, of in ieder geval een stuk minder omzet voor de diverse profielen websites. Nee, dit is in de branche geen issue, maar wat als deze ideeën onder de gebruikers gaan leven?

Wat is de daadwerkelijke privacy policy van diverse (online opererende) bedrijven en wordt die wel nageleefd intern? Er zijn namelijk normen waaraan de handeling hiervan moet voldoen, denk aan e-mail adressenbestanden en profielgegevens, geloof me ik weet uit eigen ervaring dat daar niet altijd even discreet mee om wordt gegaan en dat iedereen die het wil zich er vrij simpel toegang tot kan verschaffen. Het is wachten op een exces (die boven water komt).

Maar ook: Waar exact ligt de grens tussen privé en werk -als die überhaupt nog relevant is? Moet je je wel druk maken om je online profiel en de weekend foto’s die erop staan (terwijl je op een willekeurige bedrijfsfeest of wintersport ten overstaan van het hele bedrijf buiten je boekje gaat)? Thuiswerken, flexwerken, overuren draaien, de Blackberry continue aan; de fysieke grens tussen privé en werk vervaagt hand over hand.  En wat te denken van alle persona’s die je online hebt te managen bij de diverse sites als LinkedIn, MySpace, Hyves, MSN en de (vak)blogs die je bezoekt e.d.?

Sociaal-Maatschappelijke veranderingen zijn al vaker door de komst van nieuwe media in een stroomversnelling gekomen; denk maar aan de boekdrukkunst, televisie en nu dan de web2.0 toepassingen op het internet. En de digitale sneltrein gaat alleen maar harder rijden. Een aantal andere vragen zouden kunnen zijn: Moet je je ertegen wapenen? Moet je de mainstream/digibeten zich ertegen leren wapenen? Zoja, in welke mate en willen we dat wel op, zeg, kosten van de Staat? Moet je je erin berusten? Maar wellicht nog veel urgenter: Hoe gaan we de ons opvolgende generaties, onze kinderen, leren hiermee om te gaan? Media Wijsheid mag wat mij betreft echt nog hoger op de politieke agenda en vooral ook op die van de ouders komen te staan. Per direct.

Alleen dan komen we weer op de aloude bekende uitdagingen/problemen: Er zijn zat ouders die sowieso al niet toegerust waren om opvoeder te zijn, die daarnaast zelf ook nog eens niet “Media Wijs” zijn, laat staan dat ze het Media Wijs zijn op een zinnige, gefundeerde wijze aan hun kroost zouden kunnen doorgeven…

De ruimte en tijd die ik hier momenteel heb zijn ontoereikend om er nu dieper en tot in detail op in te gaan en er zullen vast nog vele facetten zijn waar we met zijn allen zeker nog naar moeten kijken en goed over moeten nadenken, zelf ben ik van mening that we as an industry have to take our responsibility, want als er een ding is wat de “Media/technologie/ICT/Internet cocktail” ons wel geleerd heeft, is het wel dat -zeker wanneer we het over veiligheid en privacy hebben- uiteindelijk de gebruiker de zwakste schakel is. Al met al ben ik zeer benieuwd waar dit allemaal naar toe gaat…